What this is
How much of Pokémon card retail spending goes to shops and distributors rather than The Pokémon Company, year to February 2026: between about ¥205bn and ¥358bn, depending on assumptions.
How it’s built
- Japan: the retail–publisher gap, about ¥61.7bn.
- Outside Japan: about ¥351bn of retail spending at list price, times a mark-up factor of 1.0–1.3, times the share not kept by The Pokémon Company.
- That share was tested at 35%, 47% and 59% kept by The Pokémon Company, the range the research itself gives.
What we assumed
- The Pokémon Company keeps 35–59% of the retail price outside Japan.This is the research's own estimated range, built from a blend of channel assumptions; no filing gives it.
- Actual retail spending is 1.0–1.3 times list-price spending.Cards often sell above list price; the factor is an assumption.
- Overseas retail spending at list price is about ¥351bn.Itself an estimate carried over from other calculations in the research.
Sanity check
The finding that shops take about as much as The Pokémon Company earns holds only near the middle of the range: it is built into the assumption, not observed. The ratio runs from 0.67 to 1.38.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- EstimateCard channel take at list by tier, TPC year to February 2026
- EstimateAn estimate of The Pokémon Company's whole trading-card revenue for the year to February 2026¥223–370bn
- EstimateAn estimate of how much of each Western list-price dollar reaches The Pokémon Company in the year to February 2026
Show the working
- Full band channel: ¥205–358bn
- Ratio band: 0.67 to 1.38
- channel = 61.7 + 350.575 × m × (1 − s)
- TPC card line = 100.7 + 350.575 × m × s
- s ∈ {0.35, 0.47, 0.59}, m ∈ {1.0, 1.3}
Where it’s used
Related figures
Built from this one