What this is
An estimate of The Pokémon Company's whole trading-card revenue for the year to February 2026: about ¥266–315bn centrally, within ¥223–370bn, or roughly 25–31% of group revenue.
How it’s built
- Japan: the toy association's card market (¥338bn at list price) × Pokémon's roughly 48% share × 62% kept by the publisher ≈ ¥100.7bn.
- Outside Japan: an estimated list-price value of ¥350.6bn × the share reaching the company (about 47%) × a 1.0–1.3 adjustment for product mix.
- Add the two; divide by group revenue of about ¥1,020–1,048bn.
What we assumed
- Pokémon is about 48% of Japan's card market and the publisher keeps 62% of list price.The 48% comes from a market-research firm's brand ranking; the 62% is a research estimate with no direct source.
- About 47 cents of each Western list-price dollar reaches the company (range 35–59).A channel-by-channel estimate from forum, blog and distributor evidence; nothing is sourced from a price list or contract.
- Non-Japan cards are valued at US list prices, with a 1.0–1.3 multiplier.The multiplier stands in for the mix of premium products; the research gives no direct measure of it.
Sanity check
The company does not report card revenue. The wide range (¥223–370bn) is the honest answer; the central point depends most on the Western share assumption.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes.
Show the working
- Japan point: ¥101bn
- Ex Japan at s 0.45 m 1.0 1.15 1.3: 158, 181, 205
- Ex Japan at s 0.47 m 1.0 1.15 1.3: 165, 190, 214
- Whole line at s 0.47 m 1.0 1.15 1.3: 266, 290, 315
- Whole line band s 0.35 0.59: 223 to 370
- Ex Japan share of S floor % at s 0.45 m 1.0 1.3: 30.5 to 42
- ex-Japan = 350.575 x s x m
- whole line = 100.712 + ex-Japan
- shares on TPC 1,019.9-1,047.9bn (point 1,043.0) and S floor 488.4-516.4bn
Where it’s used
Related figures
Built from this one
- EstimateWhether The Pokémon Company's estimated revenue lines add up to group revenue for the year to February 2026
- EstimateThe Pokémon Company group's revenue for the year to February 2026, regrouped by its role
- EstimateHow sensitive the subsidiaries’ unexplained revenue is to its two biggest inputs, year to February 2026
- EstimateHow much of Pokémon card retail spending goes to shops and distributors rather than The Pokémon Company, year to February 2026¥205–358bn
- EstimateHow a yen spent on Pokémon cards compares with a yen spent on licensed merchandise for The Pokémon Company11–25%
- EstimateCard concentration on ledger basis against backlog 60%, TPC year to February 2026 (Nintendo year to March 2026); list = year to March 2026 (年度2025e)