What this is
An estimate of The Pokémon Company’s worldwide card revenue, year to February 2026: point about ¥302bn, base range ¥276–329bn, widest ¥242–368bn.
How it’s built
- Japan: about ¥100.7bn to the publisher, from Japanese market data.
- Outside Japan: cards printed beyond Japan (about 5.22bn) × the US booster price per card (¥67.16) × a 50% publisher share × a product-mix factor of 1.0–1.3.
- Varying print between 9.0bn and 10.9bn gives the widest range.
What we assumed
- The publisher keeps 50% of list price outside Japan.Store costs of about half of list point that way, but evidence is from blogs and forums; later work prefers about 47%.
- All cards outside Japan earn US list-price economics.Simplest basis; cheaper pricing in Asia or Europe would lower the figure.
- Product mix adds 0–30% to the booster price per card.The research gives no direct evidence; it is a main uncertainty.
- Japan’s publisher revenue is fixed at its point estimate.Keeps the model simple; Japan’s own range is not carried through.
Sanity check
Each billion cards of print moves the answer by about ¥34–44bn. At the later central publisher share of 47%, the base range falls to about ¥266–315bn.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- EstimateSplits the year's roughly 10 billion cards between Japan (about 4.8 billion) and the rest of the world (about 5.2 billion), and puts TPC's Japanese card revenue at about ¥100.7bn
- EstimateWestern publisher share of msrp bound, 2025-2026
- EstimateWestern publisher yield function, TPC year to February 2026
Show the working
- One share: 0.5
- Point (P=10.0, m=1.15): 302
- Base band (P=10.0, m 1.0-1.3): 276 to 329
- Print band (P 9.0-10.9, m 1.0-1.3): 242 to 368
- Ex-Japan retail as % of LG $15.7bn (P=10.0): 14.9 to 19.4
- CL = Japan publisher 100.712 + (P − 4.78) x Y(s, m), on 's Japan point …
- 338,414 x 0.48 x 0.62 = ¥100.7bn)
- P=10.0, s=0.50: 100.7 + 5.22 x 33.58 = 276.0
- m=1.3: 100.7 + 5.2
Where it’s used
Related figures
Built from this one
- EstimateOur estimate of what shoppers worldwide spent on new Pokémon cards in a year, at list price
- EstimateKey figures for The Pokémon Company group, year to February 2026¥488–516bn
- EstimateHeadline ratios for The Pokémon Company group, year to February 202630%
- EstimatePure licensor counterfactual on q11 card line, TPC year to February 2026 card line at s = 0.50, P = 10.0bn
- EstimateCircana US Pokémon toy consistency check, 2025
- EstimateBand movement ledger q17, TPC year to February 2026