What this is
How sensitive the subsidiaries’ unexplained revenue is to its two biggest inputs, year to February 2026: card share moves it about ¥97bn, licensing about ¥106bn.
How it’s built
- Residual = subsidiaries’ revenue ¥511.6bn minus Western cards, licensing, online (¥40bn) and events (¥8bn).
- Card share from 35% to 59% gives ¥218bn to ¥121bn; licensing from ¥98.5bn to ¥204.3bn gives ¥176bn to ¥70bn.
- Every 10 points of License Global’s figure outside the International arm’s territory removes ¥13–20bn of licensing.
What we assumed
- One input moves at a time, others at central values.Standard one-at-a-time sensitivity; it does not show both moving together.
- Central values: list-price multiplier 1.15, licensing ¥105bn, card share 47%.The research’s central case.
- The chosen residual (¥151.7bn) is preferred over an alternative (¥143.6bn).The alternative double-counts Korea’s card sales and keeps online at the model value; that explains the ¥8.1bn gap.
Sanity check
Two uncertain inputs each swing the result by about ¥100bn, so the residual’s central value should be read loosely.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- EstimateKey figures for The Pokémon Company group, year to February 2026¥488–516bn
- EstimateAn estimate of The Pokémon Company's whole trading-card revenue for the year to February 2026¥223–370bn
- EstimateEstimated royalty income The Pokémon Company earned from Western licensed merchandise in 2025
- EstimateSubsidiaries unexplained residual restated CN45, TPC year to February 2026
- EstimateAn estimate of how much of each Western list-price dollar reaches The Pokémon Company in the year to February 2026
- EstimateLicensing fill above residual model, TPC year to February 2026 (LG 2025)
Show the working
- R(s,m,L) = 511.6 − 350.575·s·m − L − 40 − 8: s 0.35→217.5, s 0.59→120.7 (swing 96.8)
- L 98.5→175.6, L 204.3→69.8 (swing 105.8)
- 15.7×0.1×5.51%×149.57 = 12.9
- 151.7 − 143.6 = 8.1 = 4.6 + 3.5
Where it’s used
Related figures
Built from this one