What this is
ASSUMPTION: 2025 mix like 2021 (non-card 26%,) or 2022 (IP content 29%,); goods include non-card merchandise, so 'goods' bounds the card part from above. Q09's 60/40 split sits within the plausible range; the D-12/D-13 reconciliation changes by ≤¥1.1bn.
The values
- Non card at 2021 22 mix: ¥2–2.2bn
- Goods at 2021 22 mix: ¥5.5–5.7bn
- Residual change ¥ billion abs max: 1.1
Some detail is too fine to show here; it is kept in the trainer’s notes.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- EstimateCard share of revenue, 2020-2021
- EstimateRevenue mix 2022, 2022
- EstimateHow sensitive the subsidiaries’ unexplained revenue is to its two biggest inputs, year to February 2026
Show the working
- ¥7.71bn × 0.26 = 2.00
- × 0.29 = 2.24
- 3.1 − 2.0 = 1.1