How it’s built
- Take estimated Pocket spending: ¥122.9bn in the year to February 2025, ¥150bn in the year to February 2026.
- Show it gross and at 70% (net of store fees): ¥150bn or ¥105bn is 28.2% or 19.8% of the Tokyo company’s 2026 revenue.
- In the year to February 2025, Pocket was 76–108% of the Tokyo company’s revenue growth.
What we assumed
- The Pokémon Company may book Pocket gross or net of store fees, so both are shown.Its presentation is not disclosed.
- Net of store fees is 70% of gross.That is the ratio Sensor Tower, an app-data vendor, observed between net and gross for Pokémon GO.
- Pocket spending estimates and a run-rate of ¥65.9bn for the year to February 2027 are right.Both come from the site’s modelled Pocket series; the run-rate assumes recent decline continues.
Sanity check
If booked gross, the rest of the Tokyo company shrank 3.2% in the year to February 2025; if net, it grew 9.2%. Pocket’s share of operating profit is wide, 10–48%, because its own costs are unknown.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- ReportedPokémon GO's worldwide spending in its first two months (6 July to about 1 September 2016), per Sensor Tower
- EstimatePocket share of TPC revenue and operating profit, TPC year to February 2024–year to February 2027; Nintendo year to March 2027
Show the working
- 150 × 0.70 = 105.0, /531.428 = 19.8%
- 150/531.428 = 28.2%
- 122.9 × 0.70 = 86.0
- parent growth 410.932 − 297.508 = 113.4
- 122.9/113.4 = 108%, 86.0/113.4 = 76%
- (410.9 − 122.9)/297.5 − 1 = −3.2%, (410.9 − 86.0)/297.5 − 1 = +9.2%
- 65.9 × 0.70 = 46.1
- 84.1 × 0.70 = 58.9, /531.428 = 11.1%
- 84.1/531.428 = 15.8%
- OP: 14.7/143.972 = 10.2%, 69.6/143.972 = 48.3%
Where it’s used
Related figures
Built from this one
- EstimateThe Tokyo parent's revenue outside TCG Pocket grew about 31–32% to ¥381–426bn in the year to February 2026; it must grow about 12–25% next year to keep total revenue flat
- EstimateWhat users spent on Pokémon apps in the year to February 2026 after the app stores' cut
- EstimateThe Pokémon Company's mobile games revenue for the year to February 2026
- EstimateTPC group recurring net profit, year to February 2026, estimate¥196–243bn
- EstimateTPC group net profit a year with one-offs removed, estimate¥177–245bn
- EstimatePocket headwind on h1 year to March 2027 pickup, Nintendo H1 year to March 2027 ↔ TPC parent Mar–Aug 2026 vs Mar–Aug 2025