What this is
Recurring year to February 2026 TPC-alone NI less Pocket's year to February 2027 contribution headwind ¥8.2–39.0bn pre-tax (; basis-independent, unlike the ¥84.1bn gross / ¥58.9bn net revenue headwind,), plus Japan's ¥200 step at full drop-through (ASSUMED C: supply-bound, no demand response, cost per card unchanged;,), both taxed at 30.7%.
The values
- Recurring year to February 2026: ¥196–243bn
- Pocket contribution headwind pretax: ¥8.2–39bn
- Pocket headwind after tax: ¥5.68–27bn
- Price step full year after tax: ¥7.76bn
- Price step in year after tax: ¥6.02bn
- Normalised run rate: ¥177–245bn
Some detail is too fine to show here; it is kept in the trainer’s notes.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- EstimateTPC group recurring net profit, year to February 2026, estimate¥196–243bn
- EstimatePocket share of TPC revenue and operating profit, TPC year to February 2024–year to February 2027; Nintendo year to March 2027
- EstimateHow big Pokémon TCG Pocket is inside The Pokémon Company Tokyo company’s accounts, years to February 2025–2027, shown both gross and net of app-store fees¥105–150bn
- EstimateIllustrative revenue effects of card price changes at February 2026 volumes
- EstimateJapan 200yen pack step inside year to February 2027, TPC year to February 2027 (Mar 2026–Feb 2027)
- FiledEffective tax rate, year to February 202630.7%
Show the working
- low 196.2 − 39.0×0.693 (27.03) + 11.2×0.693 (7.76) = 176.9
- high 243.1 − 8.2×0.693 (5.68) + 7.76 = 245.2
- in-year price 6.02: 175.1–243.5
Where it’s used
Related figures
Built from this one
- EstimateTokyo company net assets, February 2026¥416bn
- EstimateNintendo’s carrying value of its TPC stake, March 2026, estimate¥274–278bn
- EstimateCreatures’ and Game Freak’s assumed 68% of normalised profit, a year¥120–167bn
- EstimateTPC parent retained earnings at February 2027 if nothing is paid out, estimate¥496–518bn