What this is
Illustrative revenue effects of card price changes at February 2026 volumes: +$0.50 a US pack adds ¥19.5bn; Japan’s ¥200 price step adds up to ¥11.2bn.
How it’s built
- US: 5.22bn non-Japan cards × 5 cents a card × ¥149.57 × the company’s 50% share = ¥19.5bn.
- Each extra 5 points of list price kept by the company adds ¥17.5–22.8bn.
- Japan: an 11.1% price step on ¥100.7bn of Japanese card revenue = ¥11.2bn.
What we assumed
- Volumes, exchange rate and net-to-list ratios stay the same.No demand response is assumed because the research finds supply, not demand, limits card sales.
- The company keeps 50% of Western list price.That is in the upper half of the research’s 35–59% band, so the US figure may be high.
- Every Japanese pack type rises.An upper bound: by November 2026 only the standard pack had risen; premium packs held their prices.
Sanity check
These are what-ifs, not forecasts; the Japan figure in particular is an upper bound.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
Show the working
- US: +$0.50 per 10-card pack, ex-Japan cards 5.22bn, s=0.50: ¥19.5bn
- US: each +0.05 of publisher share at m 1.0-1.3: ¥17.5–22.8bn
- Japan 200円 step at year to February 2026 volume: ¥11.2bn
- Japan step as % of Japan publisher card revenue: 11.1
- 5.22 x 0.05 $/card x 149.57 x 0.50 = ¥19.5bn
- 5.22 x 67.16 x 0.05 x 1.0..1.3 = ¥17.5-22.8bn
- 100.7 x 0.1111 = ¥11.2bn
- Assumptions: volume, net/list and FX constant
- no demand response (supply-bound per Q07)
- Japan 200円 step: if every tier steps (upper bound)
- only the standard pack had stepped by 2026-11-01
Where it’s used
Related figures
Built from this one
- EstimateItems that explain little or none of the rise in Nintendo's share of Pokémon profit in the six months to September 2026
- EstimateTPC group net profit a year with one-offs removed, estimate¥177–245bn
- EstimateJapan 200yen pack step inside year to February 2027, TPC year to February 2027 (Mar 2026–Feb 2027)