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Record

DeNA’s estimated share of player spending on Pokémon TCG Pocket

Q3–Q4 year to March 2025 calibration, applied Q1 year to March 2026–Q1 year to March 2027

EstimateA calibrated estimate from one filed figure; reasonable, but one half-year deep.

What this is

DeNA’s estimated share of player spending on Pokémon TCG Pocket: about 23.6%, within 22.7–24.4%.

How it’s built

  1. Take DeNA’s filed revenue from The Pokémon Company for October 2024–March 2025: ¥35.5bn.
  2. Estimate Pocket’s player spending in that period at ¥146–150bn, from DeNA’s reported game-segment player spending minus its other games.
  3. Divide the first by the second.

What we assumed

  • DeNA’s revenue from The Pokémon Company is all Pocket (one scenario strips out ¥2.5bn of other work).The Pokémon Company sells Pocket and pays DeNA a share; the low end allows for other work.
  • DeNA’s other games’ player spending relates to their revenue at a fixed ratio.A modelling choice; it sets how much of the segment total is Pocket.
  • The share stays the same in later quarters.No later quarter can be calibrated; this is carried forward unchanged.

Sanity check

It sits inside an independent earlier estimate of 22.4–25.8% based on DeNA’s jump in revenue in October–December 2024.

Where it comes from

Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:

Show the working
  • Tau central: 0.236
  • Tau band: 0.227 to 0.244
  • Non pocket take rho: 0.531
  • Superseded rev1 central: 0.229
  1. τ = 35.505/150.3 = 0.2362 (a)
  2. 35.505/145.7 = 0.2437 (b)
  3. 33.005/145.7 = 0.2265 (c)
  4. quarterly a: (28.033 − 10.64)/74.56 = 0.2333, (27.518 − 9.41)/75.77 = 0.2390
  5. Rev 1: (28.033 − 11.25)/(94.6 − 21.2) = 0.2287
  6. (27.518 − 11.25)/(93.5 − 21.2) = 0.2250

Where it’s used

Related figures

Built from this one

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