What this is
Our forecast for DeNA's July–September 2026 results: game revenue about ¥11.7bn (¥10.6–12.8bn), game profit about ¥3.3bn, and Pokémon TCG Pocket player spending about ¥15.7bn.
How it’s built
- Pocket spending: the previous quarter's ¥16.5bn less 5% = ¥15.7bn.
- DeNA game revenue: about ¥8.0bn from other games plus 23.6% of Pocket spending = ¥11.7bn.
- Full year to March 2027: DeNA's revenue from The Pokémon Company about 23.6% × ¥61.2bn = ¥14.4bn.
What we assumed
- Pocket spending falls about 5% a quarter.The central path from recent quarters; the range allows faster or slower decline.
- DeNA keeps 22.65–24.4% of Pocket spending.Calibrated from DeNA's filed revenue in one earlier period.
Sanity check
Testable when DeNA reports around 10 November 2026: revenue of ¥14bn or more, or profit of ¥5bn or more, with users at or below 23 million would mean Pocket held up better than assumed. At ¥14.4bn for the year, The Pokémon Company may drop below 10% of DeNA's revenue.
The value
- Due: Q2 ≈10 November 2026; 有報 ≈June 2027
Some detail is too fine to show here; it is kept in the trainer’s notes.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- EstimatePocket revenue at DeNA by quarter profit route anchored, Q3 year to March 2025–Q1 year to March 2027
- EstimateTCG Pocket spending expected in the year to February 2027
Show the working
- Q2 gross 16.5 × 0.95 = 15.7
- revenue 8.0 + 0.236 × 15.7 = 11.7
- profit −0.35 + 3.7 = 3.3
- low 7.5 + 0.244 × 12.6 = 10.6, profit −0.85 + 3.07 = 2.2
- high 8.5 + 0.2265 × 19 = 12.8, profit 0.15 + 4.3 = 4.5
- FY3/27 TPC revenue 0.236 × 61.2 = 14.4
- segment profit 14.4 − 4 × 0.35 = 13.0
Where it’s used
Related figures
Built from this one