What this is
TCG Pocket spending expected in the year to February 2027: about ¥66bn (range ¥54–79bn), some ¥84bn less than the year before, a drop worth about 16% of the parent's latest revenue.
How it’s built
- Start from the April–June 2026 quarter, ¥16.5bn central (¥14–19bn), derived from DeNA's filed revenue from TPC.
- Let spending decline by 5% a quarter (0–10% across the range), add March 2026, and take two-thirds of the January–March 2027 quarter.
- Compare with about ¥150bn (¥143–154bn) in the year to February 2026: ¥150bn − ¥65.9bn = ¥84.1bn.
What we assumed
- Spending declines 0–10% a quarter.Pocket's spending has fallen since launch; the rate is assumed. Monthly users (down 4% a quarter) are not used as a guide to spending.
- TPC records Pocket spending as its own revenue.That is consistent with how its revenue rose when Pocket launched; if TPC booked only a fee, the drop would be smaller in yen.
Sanity check
¥84.1bn ÷ ¥531.4bn of parent revenue = 15.8%.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes.
Show the working
- Headwind % of year to February 2026 parent revenue: 15.8
- Replaces: rev 1 ¥46.8bn (¥33–62bn) and headwind ¥83bn; CN-41's ¥44–75bn
- central 9.4 + 16.5 + 15.68 + 14.89 + 2/3 × 14.15 = 65.9
- low 9.0 + 14.0 + 12.6 + 11.34 + 2/3 × 10.21 = 53.7
- high 9.8 + 3 × 19.0 + 2/3 × 19.0 = 79.4
- Headwind 150 − 65.9 = 84.1
- 143 − 79.4 = 63.6
- 154 − 53.7 = 100.3
- 84.1/531.428 = 15.8%
- DeNA FY3/27 16.5 + 15.68 + 14.89 + 14.15 = 61.2 × 0.236 = 14.4
Where it’s used
Related figures
Built from this one
- EstimateThe Tokyo parent's revenue outside TCG Pocket grew about 31–32% to ¥381–426bn in the year to February 2026; it must grow about 12–25% next year to keep total revenue flat
- EstimateOur forecast for DeNA's July–September 2026 results
- EstimateDigital series pocket plus GO app store by TPC year, TPC year to February 2025–year to February 2027
- EstimatePocket gross collected against remaining tail by decay, Oct 2024–Jun 2026 collected; Jul 2026–Jun 2029 tail
- EstimateTo date yen tailwind and stress (prediction inputs), year to February 2027, TPC year to February 2027 (Mar 2026–Feb 2027) YTD to Oct 2026; 2026 Jan–Oct