Two sensitivity checks on the Pocket estimates

What this is

Two sensitivity checks on the Pocket estimates: how much one assumption moves the April–June 2026 figure, and DeNA’s implied game profit for the year to March 2027.

How it’s built

1. Changing the assumed profit of DeNA’s other games by ¥0.5bn a quarter moves estimated Pocket spending in April–June 2026 by about ¥2.1bn.
2. A forecast of DeNA’s game profit for the year to March 2027, about ¥13bn, is 56% below the filed ¥29.7bn for the year to March 2026.

What we assumed

• Pocket player spending keeps falling about 5% a quarter.The central path of the site’s own forecast; it is a working assumption, not an observation.
• DeNA keeps about 23.6% of Pocket spending and its other games lose about ¥0.35bn a quarter.Both carried forward from the calibration on DeNA’s filings.

Sanity check

DeNA’s next results will test this. Revenue of ¥14bn or more, or profit of ¥5bn or more, in July–September 2026 would mean Pocket held up better than assumed.

Where it comes from

Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:

• EstimatePocket revenue at DeNA by quarter profit route anchored, Q3 year to March 2025–Q1 year to March 2027
• EstimateOur forecast for DeNA's July–September 2026 results
• FiledGame segment profit, year to March 2026¥29.7bn

Where it’s used

• ProfileDeNA