What this is
Publisher basis = list x net/list 0.55-0.70 : 338.414 x 0.48 x 0.62 = 100.7. ASSUMPTION: Pokémon's 48% share of 年度2023 held through 2025e (C-Q07-1); JTA category includes non-TCG card games.
The values
- 年度2022 (year to March 2023): ¥97.6bn
- 年度2023 (year to March 2024): ¥134bn
- 年度2024 (year to March 2025) ¥ billion point/band: 145, 121, 151
- 年度2025e (year to March 2026) ¥ billion point/band: 162, 135, 169
- 年度2025e at TPC publisher basis (x0.55-0.70): 74.5, 118, 101
- RT-24 retailer ¥190bn: outside the 40-50% band (56.1% of JTA); not used
Some detail is too fine to show here; it is kept in the trainer’s notes.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- EstimateJapan brand sales two point, FY2022-FY2023
- ReportedPokémon card sales in Japan in 2023, according to Media Create, a Japanese market-research firm134 ¥ bn
- EstimateLine cards japan TPC revenue, TPC year to February 2026 ≈ TJA FY2025e (1-month offset)¥83.9bn
- EstimatePrice basis check media create against filed domestic card game, Bushiroad year to June 2024 (Jul 2023-Jun 2024) vs Media Create FY2023
- ReportedCard category note: includes non-trading card games, 2022
Show the working
- 2022 = Media Create-implied 97.6 …
- 97.6/234.906 = 41.5%)
- 2023 = 133.7 …
- /277.425 = 48.2%)
- 2024 = 302.466 x 0.48 = 145.2 (x0.40 = 121.0, x0.50 = 151.2)
- 2025e = 338.414 x 0.48 = 162.4 (135.4-169.2)
Where it’s used
Related figures
Built from this one