What this is
Estimated value at list price of new Pokémon cards bought worldwide in the year to February 2026: about ¥490–680bn.
How it’s built
- Start from one total of 10.0bn cards printed in the year to March 2026.
- Japan: the Japan Toy Association’s ¥338bn card-game market × Pokémon’s 40–50% share = ¥135–169bn, which at ¥32.7–36 a card fixes Japan’s card count.
- Rest of world: the remaining cards at the US booster price of ¥67.16 a card, times 1.0–1.3: ¥324–545bn.
What we assumed
- Cards printed in the year roughly equal cards sold in it.Tying both regions to one print total keeps them consistent; stock build-up or timing gaps are not modelled.
- Pokémon is 40–50% of Japan’s card-game market.Drawn from other estimates in the research, including Media Create data; not disclosed.
- Cards outside Japan sell at the US booster price, times 1.0–1.3.The uplift allows for pricier box sets; Asian editions priced lower are a known downside.
Sanity check
Replaces an earlier range of ¥486–625bn whose low end was impossible under one print total. List value is spending, not The Pokémon Company’s revenue.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- EstimateSplits the year's roughly 10 billion cards between Japan (about 4.8 billion) and the rest of the world (about 5.2 billion), and puts TPC's Japanese card revenue at about ¥100.7bn
- EstimateCards at list coupled print band, TPC year to February 2026 ≈ JTA 年度2025e; print year to March 2026
Show the working
- Coupled total: ¥493–680bn
- Coupled at 34 yen: ¥507–661bn
- Japan JTA list: ¥135–169bn
- Ex Japan list price coupled: ¥324–545bn
- Superseded independent corners: ¥486–625bn
- Coupled through the one 10.0bn-card FY3/26 print : Japan cards = JTA ¥338.414bn × share ÷ ¥/card
- ex-Japan = 10.0 − Japan cards at US MSRP ¥67.16 × m
- Low: sha
Where it’s used
Related figures
Built from this one
- EstimateEstimated retail value of licensed Pokémon merchandise, excluding cards and video games, sold in The Pokémon Company International’s territories in 202555–68%
- EstimateCards at list coupled print band, TPC year to February 2026 ≈ JTA 年度2025e; print year to March 2026
- EstimateConsumer spend by region, TPC year to February 2026 (Mar 2025–Feb 2026) ≈ Nintendo year to March 2026 (Apr 2025–Mar 2026); 2025 for License Global and GameStop
- EstimatePokémon card resale worldwide, a year, in yen, our model¥194–613bn
- EstimateFranchise consumer spend by region card game IN, TPC year to February 2026 (Mar 2025–Feb 2026) ≈ Nintendo year to March 2026; 2025 for License Global and Circana
- EstimateJapan share of world card spend at list coupled corners, TPC year to February 2026 (Mar 2025–Feb 2026) ≈ Nintendo year to March 2026