What this is
How much of the estimated Western licensing income must come from smaller licensees under tougher assumptions: still at least about two-thirds (¥66bn) at the low end.
How it’s built
- Raise the toy royalty rate to 22%: named payers’ ceiling $216.8m = ¥32.4bn, 32.9% of ¥98.5bn. Residual ¥66.1bn (67%) to ¥171.9bn (84%).
- Or add 25% to toys for markets outside the US and Europe: ceiling ¥32.1bn, residual ¥66.4bn.
What we assumed
- The tougher cases are a 22% toy rate or 25% more toy sales.22% is JAKKS’s top contract rate; the 25% uplift is the research’s allowance for other markets.
- Costume and Funko ceilings unchanged.They are already set at top rates.
Sanity check
Under either tougher case, named toy, costume and collectible licensees can supply at most about a third of the low estimate (32.9%), so the conclusion barely moves: most income must come from outside named hard-goods licensees.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- EstimateThe most all Western Pokémon toy licensees together could have paid in royalties in 2025
- EstimateThe most JAKKS could have paid in Pokémon costume royalties
- EstimateThe most Funko could have paid in Pokémon royalties
- EstimateHow much of the estimated Western Pokémon licensing income (¥98.5–204.3bn) named Western toy, costume and collectible licensees could supply¥26.8bn
Show the working
- Outer toy rate: outer 181.5 + 23.9 + 11.4 = 216.8 USDm x 149.57 = JPY 32.43bn = 32.9% of 98.5 / 15.9% of 204.3
- residual 98.5-32.43 = 66.1 (67.1%)
- 130.6-32.43 = 98.2
- 204.3-32.43 = 171.9 (84.1%)
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Where it’s used
Related figures
Built from this one