What this is
How much of the estimated Western Pokémon licensing income (¥98.5–204.3bn) named Western toy, costume and collectible licensees could supply: at most about ¥27bn.
How it’s built
- Add ceilings for all Western toy licensees ($143.6m), Disguise costumes ($23.9m) and Funko ($11.4m): $178.9m.
- At ¥149.57 per dollar that is ¥26.75bn: 27% of ¥98.5bn, 13% of ¥204.3bn.
- At least ¥72bn must therefore come from other categories.
What we assumed
- Each ceiling is set generously.Toys use the top of a retail range and a 17.4% rate; costumes the whole segment at 22%; Funko a 25% rate on its 5% cap.
- Exchange rate of ¥149.57 per dollar.The 2025 average, used across this research.
Sanity check
Raising toy sales 25% for markets outside the US and Europe lifts the ceiling to ¥32bn. Either many smaller licences matter a lot, or the income estimate is too high.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes.
Show the working
- Named hard goods ceiling: $179m
- Named hard goods ceiling: ¥26.8bn
- Sensitivity +25pct rest of territory on toys: ¥32.1bn
- LEGO in 2025: 0
- 143.6 + 23.9 + 11.4 = 178.9 USDm x 149.57 = JPY 26.75bn = 27.2% of 98.5, 20.5% of 130.6, 13.1% of 204.3
- Residual 98.5-26.75 = 71.7
- 204.3-26.75 = 177.5
- Sensitivity: toys x1.25 -> 214.8 USDm = JPY 32.1bn = 32.6% / 15.7%
Where it’s used
Related figures
Built from this one
- EstimateFor each named Western Pokémon licensee, who is paid, what art and term apply, and the most it can contribute to Western licensing income in 2025
- EstimateHow much of the estimated Western licensing income must come from smaller licensees under tougher assumptions
- EstimatePokémon licence royalties outside Asia, 2000, estimate from 4Kids’ filings$231–248m