What this is
Red-team C4: horizon-qualified collected-vs-tail on quarters and decay cases; reproduces RT-F3.
The value
- Collected Q3 year to March 2025 to Q1 year to March 2027: ¥298bn
Some detail is too fine to show here; it is kept in the trainer’s notes.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- EstimateEstimated player spending on Pokémon TCG Pocket each quarter from October 2024 to June 2026
- EstimateTCG Pocket spending expected in the year to February 2027
Show the working
- 74.6 + 75.8 + 44.1 + 31.0 + 28.0 + 28.4 + 16.5 = 298.4
- tail = 16.5 × Σ_{k=1..12}(1 − d)^k = 144.1 (d 0.05), 106.6 (0.10), 61.5 (0.20)
- limit 16.5 × (1 − d)/d = 313.5, 148.5, 66.0
- 298.4/(298.4 + 144.1) = 67%, /(298.4 + 313.5) = 49%
- 74%/67%
- 83%/82%