What this is
Red-team C5: 's s 0.17–0.24 recomputed from 's deflated growth. Assumes 年度2024 counterfactual growth equals 年度2023's deflated ≈14.4% and that the whole shortfall is Pokémon substitution; under rationing it measures timing, not size.
The values
- Shortfall pp: 3.1 to 4.6
- Pp per unit s 年度2024: 20.9
- Illustrative s: 0.15 to 0.22
- Status: illustrative sensitivity, not a bound
Some detail is too fine to show here; it is kept in the trainer’s notes.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- EstimateJapan substitution test paper against pocket, Oct 2024–Aug 2026 (Japan only)
- EstimateJapan list price deflator and deflated jta, JTA 年度2023–2026
Show the working
- 14.4 − 11.3 = 3.1
- 14.4 − 9.8 = 4.6
- 3.1/20.9 = 0.148
- 4.6/20.9 = 0.220