What this is
An estimate of 2025 Pokémon card sales in North America at US list prices: about $1.4–2.4bn.
How it’s built
- Start from Circana’s tracked US Pokémon toy sales of about $2.5bn.
- Take 60–85% as cards, giving $1.5–2.1bn at shelf prices; convert to list-price terms ($1.3–2.1bn), then add 8–12% for Canada.
What we assumed
- Cards are 60–85% of Circana’s Pokémon toy sales.Circana does not split cards out; a cross-check on growth patterns gives a similar 72–89% for 2025.
- Shelf prices average 0–15% above list price.Reflects scarcity pricing in 2025; the research gives no direct measurement.
- Canada adds 8–12% to the US figure.The research gives no direct evidence for this ratio.
Sanity check
Target said Pokémon was most of its over-$1bn trading-card sales in spring 2025, so more than $0.5bn, which is 24–38% of this US range and plausible.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes.
Show the working
- Tau card share of circana Pokémon: 0.6 to 0.85
- P shelf over msrp: 1 to 1.15
- US cards shelf: $1.5–2.13bn
- US cards msrp equiv: $1.3–2.13bn
- Canada factor: 1.08 to 1.12
- North america msrp equiv: $1.41–2.38bn
- 2.5 x 0.60 = 1.50 shelf, /1.15 = 1.30
- 2.5 x 0.85 = 2.125, /1.00 = 2.13
- NA: 1.304 x 1.08 = 1.41
- 2.125 x 1.12 = 2.38
- Cross-check on tau: if non-card Pokemon toys grew 6% (market), cards 2025 = 1.337 x tau24 + (1.163 - 0.06 x 1.337 x (1 - tau24)): tau24 0.5 -> 1.79 (tau25 0.72)
- 0.8 -> 2.22
Where it’s used
Related figures
Built from this one