What share of Pokémon GO spending the Tokyo parent’s profit implies

What this is

What share of Pokémon GO spending the Tokyo parent’s profit implies: about 15–22% of gross in the year to February 2017.

How it’s built

1. GO gross for the year: $0.95–1.10bn × ¥108 = ¥102.6–118.8bn.
2. An analyst’s “30 of every 100” would be ¥30.8–35.6bn, more than the parent’s entire pretax profit. 30% of the 70% left after the app store (21%) would be ¥21.5–24.9bn, about equal to it.

What we assumed

• GO gross from vendor estimates at ¥108 per dollar.No official figure exists; the exchange rate is assumed.
• The parent’s GO pretax is ¥18.2–22.2bn.From a launch-year comparison of earlier profits; a later revision widens it to ¥15.5–22.2bn.

Sanity check

Points to about 21% (30% after the store cut), not 30% of gross, unless about a third was booked outside the parent.

Where it comes from

Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:

• EstimatePlatform/Niantic/TPC/Nintendo split, Macquarie estimate, 2016
• EstimateMain series launch year control and parent GO pretax, year to February 2013-year to February 2017 (parent)

Where it’s used

• ProfileThe Pokémon Company

Related figures

Built from this one

• EstimateAn estimate of Pokémon GO’s pretax profit at the Tokyo parent in the year to February 201713–22%
• EstimateGroup pretax supply demand budget, year to February 2017, TPC group year to February 2017 vs year to February 2016