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Group pretax supply demand budget, year to February 2017, TPC group year to February 2017 vs year to February 2016

TPC group year to February 2017 vs year to February 2016

EstimateOur model or estimate. Treat it as an order of magnitude.

What this is

Supply caps: GO TPC share 21,546-35,640; merch licensing +7-11bn revenue (C-Q13-6), taken as pretax; cards' whole year to February 2017 pretax cap 14-27bn counted as if all incremental; non-GO games ≤4,348; other ≤2,000.

The values

  • Pretax over net profit table: 1.48
  • Group pretax estimate, year to March 2016: 8,699
  • Supply increment max: 79,988
  • Max if $ 1 2bn: 83,228
  • Max if TPC 40 of 100: 91,868
  • Supply increment mid: 55,175

Some detail is too fine to show here; it is kept in the trainer’s notes.

Where it comes from

Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:

Show the working
  1. table pretax/NI = 62,026/42,045 = 1.4752
  2. FY3/16 group pretax ≈ 1,887/0.32 × 1.475 = 8,699
  3. Demand: table basis 61,300-63,300 -> increment 52,601-54,601
  4. pickup basis 62,900-66,400 × 1.475 = 92,792-

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