What this is
An estimate of Pokémon GO’s pretax profit at the Tokyo parent in the year to February 2017: ¥15.5–22.2bn, about 13–22% of GO’s player spending.
How it’s built
- Start from the parent’s pretax profit (about ¥22.5–23.1bn, grossed up from filed net profit).
- Subtract profit from everything else, ¥0.9–7.0bn, including GO-lifted cards and merchandise and the 20th anniversary.
- Divide by GO’s estimated gross spending for the year, ¥102.6–118.8bn.
What we assumed
- Non-GO pretax profit was ¥0.9–7.0bn.The low end is the prior year’s level; the high end allows ¥3–14bn more revenue at 30–40% margins. The research flags this as judgement.
- GO gross was $0.95–1.10bn, converted at ¥108.From app-data vendor estimates; the exchange rate is assumed.
- A tax rate of 29–31% converts net to pretax profit.A standard Japanese corporate rate range for the period.
Sanity check
If The Pokémon Company took 30% of gross, the Tokyo parent booked between 44% and all of it.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- EstimateMain series launch year control and parent GO pretax, year to February 2013-year to February 2017 (parent)
- EstimateWhat share of Pokémon GO spending the Tokyo parent’s profit implies
- EstimateA test of whether The Pokémon Company’s international arm booked Pokémon GO’s Western income; it fails unless the Tokyo parent’s other business earned far more than seems possible
- ReportedQ&A A4: source of >¥10bn Q2 pickup increase, Q2 year to March 2017
- FiledCard game / trading card category market size 2015-2025, FY2015-FY2025 (FY2025 estimate)
- EstimateParent year to February 2017 revenue decomposition licence plus product base, TPC parent year to February 2017
Show the working
- Non GO pretax ¥ m: 876 to 7,000
- Parent GO pretax ¥ m: 15,519 to 22,198
- Implied share of GO gross: 13.1 to 21.6%
- Tokyo share of TPC GO take: 44 to 100%
- Red-team correction to //
- FY2/17 also had GO-lifted Japanese cards and merchandise and the 20th anniversary
- 's base revenue grows ¥3-14bn, at 30-40% in
Where it’s used
Related figures
Built from this one