What this is
How many times The Pokémon Company group’s revenue grew from the year to February 2017 to the year to February 2026: about 5.9–8.1 times, depending on an unresolved reading.
How it’s built
- Nintendo's share of the company's profit implies a bigger 2016–17 profit than the base-year figures can supply: an increase of ¥84.1–89.3bn needed against at most ¥80.0bn available, a gap of about ¥4–9bn.
- If that gap carried licence-type revenue, the base year rises and growth is 5.9–6.8 times; if it was a Nintendo-side item with no revenue, 7.5–8.1 times.
What we assumed
- The gap is one of three readings: revenue-bearing, licence-type, or a Nintendo-side item.None is confirmed. The first is weakest; the other two each sit uneasily with Nintendo's own statements, and the Nintendo-side reading has no identified mechanism.
- The caps used for the base year are themselves estimates.Their error is wider than the ¥4–9bn gap, so the gap may not be real at all.
Sanity check
Under the weakest reading the multiple drops to 4.5–5.7 times. The main uncertainty is the base year, not 2026.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- EstimateS2 block reading and restated growth multiple, TPC year to February 2017 base (Nintendo year to March 2017) -> year to February 2026
- EstimateGroup pretax supply demand budget, year to February 2017, TPC group year to February 2017 vs year to February 2016
- FiledQ2 year to March 2017 Q&A Q7 question wording (verbatim), 28 October 2016
- FiledNintendo’s answer in October 2016 on its jump in Pokémon Company profit
- EstimateKey figures for The Pokémon Company group, year to February 2026¥488–516bn
Show the working
- Growth multiple year to March 2017 to year to March 2026: 5.93 to 8.07
- If b: 5.93 to 6.75
- If c: 7.51 to 8.07
- If a weakest: 4.51 to 5.67
- Budget gap pickup basis ¥ m: 4,000 to 9,000
- Supply max ¥ m: 79,988
- Red-team correction to
- Pickup-basis demand increment 84,093-89,256 vs every-cap supply 79,988 : gap ≈4-9bn on C caps whose error is wider. (a) weakest
- (b) and a one-quarter Nintendo
Where it’s used
Related figures
Built from this one
- EstimateA chart table comparing growth since about 2016 in signs of Pokémon’s audience breadth with growth in card printing and company revenue
- EstimateAnnualised comparators added at persist (cross node XN-295, XN-297; NIT-171, NIT-172), year to February 2017 -> year to February 2026; Worlds 2016/2017/2019 -> 2025/2026
- EstimateRevenue per proxy fan grid both bases all proxies, year to March 2017 (TPC year to February 2017) -> year to March 2026 (TPC year to February 2026); proxies on their own windows