What this is
Nintendo's overseas Pokémon game revenue in launch years has been falling: an estimated ¥108.9–145.2bn (year to March 2022), ¥80.7–107.6bn (2023) and ¥69.4–92.6bn (2026).
How it’s built
- Launch years are taken from the release calendar: 2022 (Brilliant Diamond/Shining Pearl and Legends: Arceus), 2023 (Scarlet/Violet), 2026 (Legends: Z-A).
- Central revenue fell 25.9%, then 14.0%. Units in Nintendo's million-seller tables fell from 34.12m to 24.29m to 16.68m (−28.8%, −31.3%).
What we assumed
- Revenue is the research's model of units times price.Nintendo does not report Pokémon revenue; the unit figures are Nintendo's own.
Sanity check
Partly calendar: 2022 had two new games, and Legends: Z-A kept selling after March 2026 (13.31m by September 2026). This corrects an earlier comparison that skipped 2022, the peak year.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- EstimateEstimated revenue Nintendo earns from selling Pokémon games outside Japan, each year from 2017 to 2026. For the year to March 2026
- FiledShare of each year’s Pokémon units in Nintendo’s million-seller tables that came from older titles, years to March 2007–20261.87–5.04 million
- EstimateThe Pokémon Company’s Tokyo company revenue growth in years with and without a new console game, 2021 to 2026. New-game years averaged 38% growth; other years 33%
- FiledCopies of Pokémon Legends13.31m
Show the working
- 94169/127068-1=-25.9%
- 81003/94169-1=-14.0%
- 24.29/34.12-1=-28.8%
- 16.68/24.29-1=-31.3%