What this is
What US filings show about Niantic’s $10m milestone tranche from 2015: no filing records it being sold, but that does not mean it was never paid.
How it’s built
- Niantic’s October 2015 Form D shows $20m sold of a $35m offering, with $15m remaining.
- None of Niantic’s six filings records the remainder being sold.
- US rules do not require an amendment when only the amount sold changes, or after an offering ends.
What we assumed
- Nintendo, at least, probably paid its share of the milestone: about 65–75% likely.Nintendo’s ¥1.16bn cost implies about $9–12m, more than its $6.67m upfront share; the probability is a judgement.
Sanity check
A closing within a year, or a private sale outside these rules, would leave no record, so the filings cannot settle it.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
Show the working
- Indirect evidence paid: Nintendo paid ≈$9–12m
- P milestone paid at least by Nintendo: ≈0.65–0.75 (judgement)
- Does not show confidence: B (legal reading now cited,)
- <totalAmountSold>20000001</totalAmountSold> <totalRemaining>14999999</totalRemaining>