This figure has been replaced. See Our judgement of the chance that TPC itself, rather than its store company, is the legal seller on a Japanese Pokémon Center receipt.
What this is
An analyst’s judgement of who legally sells in Japan’s Pokémon Center stores: first 65% the parent company, 25% the store company; later revised to about 50–55% the parent.
How it’s built
- Weighed evidence for the parent: it signs store and café contracts, is the named online seller, and the store company looks too small to own stock.
- Weighed evidence for the store company: it says it sells Pokémon goods, orders stock and holds its own tax-invoice number.
- Set prior weights, and how they would change if a store receipt showed either company’s invoice number.
What we assumed
- The weights themselves.They are a judgement, not a calculation. A later review found much of the evidence for the parent non-diagnostic and cut the weight to about 50–55%.
Sanity check
One store receipt would settle it: the parent’s invoice number would push the parent to about 97%; the store company’s to about 85% the store company.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
Show the working
- P parent seller kk fee operator: 0.65
- P kk seller consignment or limited risk: 0.25
- P kk full risk seller owning stock: 0.03
- P split by store or channel: 0.07
- Analyst weights
- priors sum 0.65 + 0.25 + 0.03 + 0.07 = 1.00
Where it’s used
Related figures
Built from this one