What this is
Our judgement of the chance that TPC itself, rather than its store company, is the legal seller on a Japanese Pokémon Center receipt: about 0.50–0.55, close to even with a slight lean to the parent.
How it’s built
- An earlier weighing of the evidence put the parent at about 0.65.
- A second review found that five of the points behind that lean do not actually tell the two companies apart, and re-weighed what was left: mainly a balance-sheet test, itself weakened, and one further item.
What we assumed
- The probability is a judgement, not a measurement.No receipt, contract or filing names the seller, so the number expresses how the remaining evidence leans.
- The store company's balance sheet is too small to own the stores' stock.That is the main surviving reason to lean towards the parent; a company holding the stock would need a larger balance sheet than the one on record.
Sanity check
Both companies registered for Japan's invoice system on the same day, so one dated receipt would settle the question outright. Until one is found, a figure near one half is the honest reading.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
Where it’s used
Related figures
Built from this one