What this is
What TPC's purchase of Excell, a US distributor, could add to its revenue: nothing in the year to February 2026, because the deal was signed on 18 February 2026 and had not closed by late October; about ¥2–24bn a year (¥7bn central) once it does.
How it’s built
- Excell's share of cards sold outside Japan: 12–33%, from the US share of those cards (40–55%) times Excell's share of the US (30–60%).
- The gain is the distributor margin that moves inside TPC: that share, times Excell's margin (10–25%), times what retailers pay (50–65% of list).
- Applied to TPC's revenue at last year's volumes.
What we assumed
- Excell carries 30–60% of US Pokémon cards, and the US is 40–55% of cards outside Japan.Neither figure is published.
- Excell's margin is 10–25% of its selling price.Distributors do not publish margins; this is the band used for US distributors.
- TPC's prices to retailers do not change.The gain is from booking Excell's sales inside the group, not from charging more.
Sanity check
Even the top of the range is under 5% of the parent's ¥531bn revenue, and most of the margin pays Excell's own costs, so the profit gain is small.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes.
Show the working
- Closing: not evidenced through 28 October 2026; subject to regulatory approvals
- First fiscal year affected: year to February 2027 at the earliest (part-year)
- Effect, year to February 2026: 0
- Share of ex-Japan cards routed via Excell f (assumed): 0.12 to 0.33
- f = US share of ex-Japan cards 0.40-0.55 (assumed) x Excell share of US 0.30-0.60 (assumed) = 0.12-0.33
- Uplift = f x g_e x C_m: 0.12 x 0.10 x 0.50 = 0.006
- 0.33 x 0.25 x 0.65 = 0.054
- central 0.20 x 0.15 x 0.575 = 0.017
- R
Where it’s used
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