What this is
Same share method as rev 1, applied to the anchored series. Q4 year to March 2025 Japan is floored at Q3's ¥27.6bn because domestic spend rose that quarter.
The values
- Nendo 2024: 55.2, 57.9, 59.4
- Nendo 2025: 47.9, 52.6, 57.6
- Nendo 2026 run rate: ¥19.6bn
- TPC year to February 2026 Japan: 54.3, 60, 64.7
Some detail is too fine to show here; it is kept in the trainer’s notes.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- ReportedPocket user spending (ユーザー消費額, gross) overseas share, Q1 year to March 202660%
- EstimateQ4 year to March 2025 domestic against overseas direction, Q4 year to March 2025
Show the working
- Q3 = 43.8 − 16.2 = 27.6
- 27.6/74.6 = 37.0%
- 0.40 × 75.8 = 30.3
- 0.40 × 44.1 = 17.6
- 0.40 × 31.0 = 12.4
- 0.40 × 28.0 = 11.2
- 0.40 × 28.4 = 11.4
- 0.32 × 16.5 = 5.3. 年度2024 = 27.6 + 30.3 = 57.9
- 年度2025 = 17.6 + 12.4 + 11.2 + 11.4 = 52.6
- 年度2026 ≈ 5.3 × (1 + 0.95 + 0.95² + 0.95³) = 19.6
Where it’s used
Related figures
Built from this one
- EstimateConsumer spend by region, TPC year to February 2026 (Mar 2025–Feb 2026) ≈ Nintendo year to March 2026 (Apr 2025–Mar 2026); 2025 for License Global and GameStop
- EstimateParent non japan floor and closing scenario residual on q26 pocket, TPC year to February 2026
- EstimateParent direct usd exposure pocket against TPCi consolidation effect, TPC year to February 2026 (parent: Mar 2025–Feb 2026; TPCi: 2025 if Dec-basis)