What this is
How far English booster box prices fell from their launch peak within three months, 2021–2026: a middle 36% (11–50%) for the four sets that opened above list, but only a middle 7% for five sets that opened below list in 2022 and 2024, some of which rose.
How it’s built
- Using market-price charts and press-reported eBay prices, measure each set's fall from its launch peak to its low in the next three months.
- Sets that opened above list fell a middle 36% (11–50%); sets that opened below list in 2022 and 2024 fell a middle 7%, and some rose.
What we assumed
- Sets can be grouped by whether they opened above or below list price.The split explains the pattern better than year of release, but the groups are tiny: four and five sets.
- Price sources differ between years but can be compared on falls.2026 uses eBay sold prices; earlier years use TCGplayer, so only the size of each fall is compared.
Sanity check
This corrects an earlier claim that all sets fell 11–50% in every era: that holds only for sets that opened above list. 2026's 18–26% falls fit the above-list group.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- EstimateBooster box post release path, release to +12
- EstimateHow 2026's new English sets held their resale price after launch
Show the working
- Python on launch_peak_to_trough_within_+3 and : median(-0.325,-0.501,-0.11,-0.387)=-0.356
- median(-0.069,-0.056,-0.081,-0.28,0.115)=-0.069