What this is
What Japan's share of Pokémon card output would be if Japanese volumes are estimated from yen sales: about 31% rising to 44–53%, years to March 2023–2026.
How it’s built
- Estimate Japanese cards by dividing Pokémon's estimated Japanese card sales by about ¥34 a card: 3.0bn rising to 4.8bn.
- Divide by world output. The rest are non-Japan cards, which on this estimate fell 22–47% from the year to February 2024 to the year to February 2026.
What we assumed
- Japanese card volume can be estimated from yen sales at about ¥34 a card.No Japan card count exists; the price per card is a blend of list prices, with about ±4.5% uncertainty.
- Pokémon's share of Japan's card market, about 48%.From a market-research firm's brand ranking.
- Recent world output is a range, not a point.The company's latest totals are rounded to the billion.
Sanity check
The company publishes no Japan split, so the rising Japan share is a result of the assumptions, not an observation. The research has not settled whether it is true.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
Show the working
- Japan share observed: none (no Japan or per-language count anywhere 2015-2026)
- Ex japan change year to February 2024 to year to February 2026: -47.1 to -22%
- J from (3.04/3.93/4.27/4.78) unchanged
- Share = J/P: 3.04/9.7 = 0.313
- 3.93/11.9 = 0.330
- 4.27/11.2..10.1 = 0.381..0.423
- 4.78/11.0..9.0 = 0.435..0.531
- Ex-J =