What this is
A ceiling test: if all of the rise in Japan's card exports were Pokémon revenue of the Tokyo company, it would add at most ¥8.77bn (seven Asian destinations) or ¥16.78bn (all destinations) to Nintendo's share of Pokémon profit for March–August 2026.
How it’s built
- Take the rise in export value against March–August 2025: ¥39.52bn to seven Asian destinations, ¥75.66bn worldwide.
- Multiply by 0.2218, the factor the site uses to turn Tokyo company revenue into Nintendo's share of profit.
- Compare with the unexplained ¥13.0–38.4bn in Nintendo's half-year share: the seven destinations cover at most 23–67%.
What we assumed
- All of the rise is Pokémon card revenue of the Tokyo company, kept in full.Deliberately generous: the heading covers all playing cards, export values are exporters' declared prices rather than company revenue, and margins are below 100%. The true figure is lower by unknown amounts.
Sanity check
A ceiling, not an estimate. Even worldwide exports could cover only 44% of the top of the unexplained range.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- EstimateItems that explain little or none of the rise in Nintendo's share of Pokémon profit in the six months to September 2026
- FiledWhat the trade code used to track Pokémon card exports actually covers
Show the working
- Seven increment FOB jpy bn: 39.5
- World increment FOB jpy bn: 75.7
- Seven increment over Q08 200yen revenue bound 3.73: 10.6
- 39.52 × 0.2218 = 8.77
- 75.66 × 0.2218 = 16.78
- 8.77/13.0 = 0.67, 8.77/38.4 = 0.23
- 16.78/13.0 = 1.29, 16.78/38.4 = 0.44
- 39.52/3.73 = 10.6