How it’s built
- Recomputed: 25.9m copies × ¥1,007 × 25% = ¥6.5bn at the low end; 25.9m × ¥2,309 × 60% = ¥35.9bn at the high end.
- No new copy count or price applies to that year; the one new per-title difference, Pokopia in Japan, falls in a later year.
What we assumed
- The copy count, prices and 25–60% shares carry over unchanged.They come from the original estimate; whether part of those copies is a counting quirk is not evidenced either way.
Sanity check
No change is not confirmation: the band stays wide and rests on a model.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- EstimateTail TPC receipts band by TPC fiscal year, TPC year to February 2020-year to February 2026
- EstimateWorldwide sellthrough minus nintendo exJP row same results set, ≈8 April 2026 vs 31 March 2026
- EstimateWindow reconciliation year to March 2021 year to March 2022 rows plus named, year to March 2021–year to March 2022
Show the working
- Year to February 2022: ¥6.5–35.9bn
- Delta: ¥0–0bn
- Tail units year to February 2022 m: 25.9
- Moved: none
- unchanged: 0.25 x ¥1,007 x 25.9m = 6.5
- 0.6 x ¥2,309 x 25.9m = 35.9
- Δ = 0