What this is
A conflict between market-size sources for North American trading cards in 2025: ICv2 implies about $2.4bn, but Pokémon and Magic alone appear to exceed that.
How it’s built
- ICv2: trading cards about two thirds of a $3.66bn market, about $2.44bn.
- Pokémon US cards ($1.3–2.1bn) plus Magic in North America at retail value ($1.46–2.11bn) total $2.8–4.2bn, above ICv2’s figure.
What we assumed
- Magic’s North American share is 45–65%, at retail value using a 53% publisher share.Hasbro gives no regional split; filings later showed at least 49% is in the US, so the 45% end is too low.
- Circana’s card category is about 10% of US toys.An illustrative assumption; the research gives no direct figure.
Sanity check
If ICv2 is right, Magic could be no more than 35% North American, which conflicts with Hasbro’s filed floor of 49% for the US alone.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes.
Show the working
- Icv2 card game 2025: $2.44bn
- Icv2 restated hobby 2024: $2.61bn
- Icv2 card game 2024: $1.44bn
- Icv2 card game share 2024: 0.55
- Circana strategic card game if 10pct of toys: $4.2–4.45bn
- Magic NA publisher $ million if NA 45 65: 774 to 1,118%
- ICv2 0.667 x 3.66 = 2.44
- restated 2024 = 3.66/1.40 = 2.61
- TCG 2024 = 2.44 - 1.0 = 1.44 = 55% (>half, consistent)
- Circana 0.10 x 42.0 = 4.20 to 0.10 x 44.52 = 4.45
- Magic NA 0.45-0.65 x 1,720.1 = 774-1,118
- / 0.529 = 1.46-2.11
- Sum with Pokemon US 1.30-2.13 = 2.77-4.24 > 2.44
- Room for Mag