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Tail against rows proportionality by window, Nov 2017 – Mar 2026

Nov 2017 – Mar 2026

EstimateOur model or estimate. Treat it as an order of magnitude.

What this is

Per-year tail on per-year rows across six windows. Tail = counter − rows, so this restates counter ≈ 1.67 × rows + ≈1m a year; the fit is driven by two large windows and uses year to March 2023 at point though C-Q143-3 allows bounds only (shown with and without).

Where it comes from

Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes.

Show the working
  1. tail/rows: 28.73/39.27 = 0.73
  2. 6.96/5.04 = 1.38
  3. 25.88/34.12 = 0.76
  4. 15.7/24.3 = 0.65
  5. 4.31/4.69 = 0.92
  6. 9.31/16.69 = 0.56
  7. per-year OLS tail = 0.669 × rows + 0.98, r = 0.967 (ex FY3/23: 0.691, 0.95, r = 0.971)

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