What this is
Re-run ('s year to February 2022 formula) at U = 13.0m, the admissible Switch UNITE maximum at 31 Mar 2022 once the year to March 2024+25 window caps Switch's share of post-mobile downloads at ≤0.068. Replaces 's U = 14.6 case as the headline scenario per RT-F2/RT-F5; 's U = 21.6 case is kept as the no-paid-tail scenario.
The values
- U m: 13
- Paid tail left m: 12.9
- Band: ¥3.25–17.9bn
- Cut: ¥3.27–18bn
- Status: conditional scenarios, not a bound
- Spine moved: none
Some detail is too fine to show here; it is kept in the trainer’s notes.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- EstimateQ89 year to February 2022 tail leg free switch component bound (CN-262), TPC year to February 2022
- EstimateTail TPC receipts band by TPC fiscal year, TPC year to February 2020-year to February 2026
- EstimateSwitch only UNITE share cap from year to March 2024+25 window (omitted window), year to March 2024+year to March 2025 (31 Mar 2023 → 31 Mar 2025)
Show the working
- U = 9 + 0.068 × 58.95 = 13.0
- paid tail 25.9 − 13.0 = 12.9
- band 0.25 × 1,007 × 12.9 = 3.25, 0.6 × 2,309 × 12.9 = 17.87
- cut 0.25 × 1,007 × 13.0 = 3.27, 0.6 × 2,309 × 13.0 = 18.01 (≈¥3–18bn)
- no paid tail U = 21.6: cut 5.44–29.92 (≈¥5–30bn)