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ILLUSTRATIVE ONLY: hypothetical Pocket-to-paper players and cards if X% of lost Pocket monthly players took up paper, against Q08's smallest residual ( scaling; NOT a finding), Q1 year to March 2026 vs Q1 year to March 2027 (MAU); H1 year to March 2027 (residual)

Q1 year to March 2026 vs Q1 year to March 2027 (MAU); H1 year to March 2027 (residual)

EstimateOur model or estimate. Treat it as an order of magnitude.

The value

  • Net mau decline yoy m: 16

Some detail is too fine to show here; it is kept in the trainer’s notes.

Where it comes from

Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:

Show the working
  1. 39 − 23 = 16m
  2. 10%: 1.6m players × 60–300 = 0.096–0.48bn cards = 6.7–33.6% of 1.43bn
  3. X_needed at 300 = 1.43/4.8 = 29.8% to 1.86/4.8 = 38.8%
  4. at 60 = 1.43/0.96 = 149% (impossible)