What this is
Pokémon GO’s player spending in its first months, and what The Pokémon Company could have earned from it: about $0.58–0.63bn gross in July–September 2016.
How it’s built
- Sensor Tower’s “$200m first month” was after the app-store cut; its later post gives $440m gross ($308m net) at about two months.
- Gross: $0.42–0.46bn for June–August and $0.58–0.63bn for July–September 2016.
- At a 21–30% share and ¥103 per dollar, that is ¥9–14bn and ¥12.5–19.5bn.
What we assumed
- The Pokémon Company received 21–30% of gross spending.21% is 30% of what remains after the store’s 30%; 30% is an analyst’s split. No share is disclosed.
- An exchange rate of ¥103 per dollar.An assumed rate for the period.
- Nintendo picks up the company’s profit with no lag.Nintendo’s accounting policy allows no lag or one month; a small first-quarter figure rules out more.
Sanity check
Nintendo’s share implies ¥37.5bn of company profit that quarter at 100%; GO explains only part, leaving about ¥18–21bn unexplained even at a 40% share.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- EstimateGO gross by TPC fiscal window and quarter, TPC year to February 2017-year to February 2019 (Mar-Feb)
- EstimateNintendo’s quarterly share of The Pokémon Company’s profit in its year to March 2017; the July–September quarter alone implies ¥37.5bn of company profit, 59% of the year
- ReportedPokémon GO’s first-month revenue per Sensor Tower
- ReportedPokémon GO's worldwide spending in its first two months (6 July to about 1 September 2016), per Sensor Tower
- FiledEquity-method period basis policy year to March 2017, year to March 2017
- EstimateApp Annie GO revenue within 90 days (vendor C), first 90 days$600m
Show the working
- Jun Aug 2016 gross $ bn: 0.42 to 0.46
- Jul Sep 2016 gross $ bn: 0.58 to 0.63
- Jun Aug over Sep Nov: 1.1 to 1.2
- TPC take 40pct Jul Sep ¥ m: 26,000
- Q2 implied TPC profit 100pct ¥ m: 37,462
- Q2 excess ¥ m: 18,000 to 21,000
- Red-team correction to /
- Sensor Tower's >$200m first-30-days point is NET
- its month-two post gives $440m gross / $308m net (, 0.70)
- Jun-Aug 2016 gross = $0.42-0.46bn
- Ju