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Record

Official Japan participation proxies against open-entry roster multiples (XN-265 / CN-245 test), 2019 base, ≈2019 → 2024–2026

EUIC over gym events: 2.92 ≈2019 → 2024–2026

EstimateOur model or estimate. Treat it as an order of magnitude.

What this is

The official series are and (TPC, Japan, B inputs); the rosters are, and (Limitless, C, mostly Western, earlier bases for NAIC/EUIC). Assumptions: gym events and seats move with the number of people playing; Japan and the West grew alike.

Where it comes from

Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:

Show the working
  1. 4.07/2.31 = 1.76
  2. 4.24/2.31 = 1.84
  3. 4.07/2.78 = 1.47
  4. 4.24/2.78 = 1.53
  5. 6.74/2.31 = 2.92
  6. annualised: 2.308^(1/6.3) − 1 = 0.142
  7. 2.778^(1/4.887) − 1 = 0.233
  8. 4.07^(1/7) − 1 = 0.222
  9. 4.24^(1/7) − 1 = 0.229
  10. (3,812/1,356)^(1/8) − 1 = 0.138