What this is
Shares against Circana's Pokémon US toy-property $2.5bn (cards are inside Circana's toy definition,) and ex-Japan Pokémon card retail at MSRP $2.34–3.05bn. Target's cut = (1 − store cost) × sales, store cost 0.50–0.65 of list.
The values
- Target trading cards: $1,000m
- Pokémon at target: $500–1,000m
- Share of circana US Pokémon property 2.5bn: 0.2 to 0.4
- Share of exJapan Pokémon card retail at list price: 0.164 to 0.427
- Target retail cut $ million at cost 0.50 0.65: 175 to 500
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- EstimateTarget Pokémon card floor and channel split, 2025
- ReportedCircana toy definition: strategic trading card games inside toy tracking, 2025
Show the working
- 0.5 × 1,000 = 500 (floor,)
- cap 1,000
- 500/2,500 = 0.20, 1,000/2,500 = 0.40
- 500/3,050 = 0.164, 1,000/2,340 = 0.427
- (1 − 0.65) × 500 = 175, (1 − 0.50) × 1,000 = 500