What this is
Happinet's 'other makers' toy sales, which it says are centred on Pokémon cards: about ¥62.1bn, ¥71.8bn and ¥83.6bn in the three years to March 2024, 2025 and 2026. On our central estimate of TPC's Japanese card sales, the line could carry at most about 83% of them.
How it’s built
- The yearly figures are read from the maker table in Happinet's results presentation and converted from hundreds of millions of yen to billions.
- The bound divides the latest year's line by our central estimate of TPC's Japanese card revenue, about ¥100.7bn; Happinet resells at or above its cost, so what it buys from TPC cannot exceed what it sells.
What we assumed
- The line is mostly Pokémon cards.Happinet says the line is centred on Pokémon cards, but it also holds other makers' toys and gives no split.
- TPC's Japanese card revenue is near our central estimate.TPC does not publish it; at the low end of our range the bound stops binding.
Sanity check
Growth of about 16% a year in both years fits the Japanese card boom, and the line staying below TPC's estimated Japanese card sales means some cards reach shops by other routes.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- FiledHappinet, Japan's largest toy wholesaler, says the growth in its 'other makers' toy line in the year to March 2026 was led by trading cards centred on Pokémon cards
- ReportedHappinet toy segment margin series against japan channel, year to March 2023–year to March 2026
Show the working
- Share of toy segment % year to March 2026: 43.5
- Growth H1 year to March 2026: 2.7%
- Growth H2 year to March 2026: 28.2%
- Segment margin proxy profit: ¥4.9bn
- As share of japan channel take 61.7: 0.08
- 71.8/62.1 − 1 = 15.6%
- 83.6/71.8 − 1 = 16.4%
- H2 = 71.8 − 33.2 = 38.6, 83.6 − 34.1 = 49.5
- 49.5/38.6 − 1 = 28.2%
- 83.6/100.7 = 0.83
- 0.059 × 83.6 = 4.9
- 4.9/61.7 = 0.08