What this is
What a reseller kept, per dollar of list price, after eBay's fee on a booster box bought at list: about +25% to +32% at the 2026 launches, when boxes resold at 1.45–1.52 times list, and about −2% to +8% by late August, when they resold at 1.13–1.24 times list. Before shipping and the reseller's time.
How it’s built
- Net gain is the resale multiple times one minus eBay's 13.25% fee, minus the list price paid.
- The resale multiples are the eBay sold-price ranges for two 2026 sets against the US list price.
What we assumed
- The reseller bought at list.Anyone paying above list, at GameStop's shelf price for example, would have lost money by late August.
- Shipping, packaging and the reseller's time are left out.They vary by seller; including them would make every figure lower.
Sanity check
A box must resell at about 1.15 times list just to break even after eBay's fee, and by late August the low end was below that.
The value
- Primary channel cut per list dollar: 0.35 to 0.71
Some detail is too fine to show here; it is kept in the trainer’s notes.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- EstimateTCGplayer marketplace fees, Oct 2026
- EstimateA rough range for how much Pokémon cards and products change hands on resale markets each year, around 2025–26$1.3–4.1bn
- EstimateCard channel take at list by tier, TPC year to February 2026
Show the working
- eBay 0.1325 × 100 = 13.25 (+0.40 = 13.65)
- TCGplayer 10.75 + 2.5 + 0.30 = 13.55
- Pro 9.25 + 2.5 + 0.30 = 12.05
- Direct 8.95 + 2.5 = 11.45
- breakeven 1/(1 − 0.1325) = 1.153
- 1.13 × 0.8675 − 1 = −0.020
- 1.52 × 0.8675 − 1 = 0.319