What this is
The ups and downs of Japan's card-game market: it fell 16.2% in the year to March 2018, then rose 23.0%. For the year to March 2026 it is estimated at 3.52 times its size ten years earlier, and 29% of the toy market, up from 11% in 2018.
How it’s built
- Each change is from the Japan Toy Association's category table, e.g. ¥87.6bn ÷ ¥104.6bn − 1 = −16.2%.
- Share of the toy market: ¥87.6bn of ¥800.0bn (2018); ¥338.4bn of ¥1,166.4bn (2026 estimate).
What we assumed
- Older editions can be joined to the current one.Figures before 2013 used shop prices, not list prices: the fall from the association's year 2011 to 2014 is 15.2% as printed but about 23.5% like for like.
Sanity check
The category covers every publisher; Pokémon is about half of it in recent years but is not shown separately.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes.
Show the working
- 2017 yoy: -16.2%
- 2018 yoy: 23%
- 2014 yoy: -6.2%
- 2023 yoy: 18.1%
- 2024 yoy: 9%
- 2015 to FY2025e times: 3.52
- 87,611/104,569-1 = -16.2%
- 107,800/87,611-1 = +23.0%
- 92,860/102,782-1 = -9.7%
- 87,139/102,782-1 = -15.2%
- 87,139/92,860-1 = -6.2%
- 277,425/234,906-1 = +18.1%
- 302,466/277,425-1 = +9.0%
- 87,611/800,015 = 10.95%
- 338,414/1,166,422 = 29.0%
- 338,414/96,067 = 3.52x
Related figures
Built from this one