What this is
How new-region Pokémon games compare per console owner, at the same point in a console's life: Scarlet/Violet sold about 0.75–0.78 times Sun/Moon's launch-year copies per owner, though 1.43 times as many copies in total.
How it’s built
- Each game's launch-year sales were divided by the console base at the start and end of that year, from Nintendo's results.
- Games launched at the same console age are compared: Sun/Moon and Scarlet/Violet both six years in, X/Y and Sword/Shield both three years in.
What we assumed
- Consoles shipped stand for owners.Nintendo publishes shipments, not active owners.
Sanity check
Early in a console's life the rate runs from about 0.19 to 0.50 copies per owner; six years in it is lower, 0.18–0.26, so raw sales growth partly reflects a bigger console base.
The value
- Late life band +6: SM 0.234-0.262, SV 0.176-0.205, BW <=0.120 (ceiling)
Some detail is too fine to show here; it is kept in the trainer’s notes.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- FiledLaunch-year sell-in per 3DS installed unit (start-of-year base, end-of-year base), year to March 2014-year to March 2018
- EstimateLaunch-year sell-in per Switch owner, with base brackets, launch FY of each title
- ReportedSplit-launch handling and launch-year sell-in per installed unit, year to March 2007-year to March 2008
- ReportedPlatform age at each launch year: year offset from platform launch year and installed base as share of platform to date, year to March 2005-year to March 2023
Show the working
- derived
- see method