What this is
How many Switch 2 consoles would be needed for a Switch 2-only new-generation Pokémon game in 2027 to match Scarlet/Violet's 22.10m launch-year sales: about 44–78m, or 1.9–3.3 times the 23.68m Switch 2 base in June 2026.
How it’s built
- Early in a console's life, a new-region Pokémon game has sold about 0.28–0.39 (X/Y) or 0.31–0.50 (Sword/Shield) copies per console owner in its launch year.
- Dividing 22.10m by those rates gives the base needed; matching X/Y's 12.26m instead needs 24.5–43.3m.
What we assumed
- A Switch 2-only game sells at an early-life rate per owner.A 2027 game would come a year or two into Switch 2's life, like X/Y on the 3DS; a version for the original Switch would draw on a far larger base.
Sanity check
At the lower rates seen late in a console's life, the base needed would be about 108–126m, so the early-life band is the generous case.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes.
Show the working
- To match XY 12.26m: 24.5 to 43.3
- At SV late life attach: 108 to 126
- Switch2 base June 2026: 23.7
- Multiple of June 2026 base: 1.87 to 3.3
- derived
- see method