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Sizing: Double Pack second-copy extra at the Sun/Moon rate against Q143 tail windows, year to March 2017; Nov2017-Mar2022 windows

Year to March 2017; Nov2017-Mar2022 windows

EstimateOur model or estimate. Treat it as an order of magnitude.

What this is

Two-unit extra = pack share of purchases x Nintendo row (counter counts pack twice, row once). Assumption: a Japan launch-week pack share applies to every worldwide row, an extreme upper case; Japan-only would be far smaller.

The values

  • SM year to March 2017 extra m pack share times row: 1.34
  • SM year to March 2017 extra m second copy share times row: 1.23
  • Tail window, year to March 2017: none in (windows start Nov 2017)

Some detail is too fine to show here; it is kept in the trainer’s notes.

Where it comes from

Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes.

Show the working
  1. 0.0869 x 15.44 = 1.34m
  2. 0.0800 x 15.44 = 1.23m
  3. 0.0869 x 39.27 = 3.41 / 28.73 = 0.119
  4. 0.0869 x 39.16 = 3.40 / 32.84 = 0.104
  5. 0.231 x 39.27/28.73 = 0.316
  6. 0.231 x 39.16/32.84 = 0.275