How many Switch 2 consoles would need to be out for a Switch 2-only Winds/Waves to match Scarlet/Violet’s launch-year sales

What this is

How many Switch 2 consoles would need to be out for a Switch 2-only Winds/Waves to match Scarlet/Violet’s launch-year sales: 108–126 million, 4.5–5.3 times the 23.68 million sold so far.

How it’s built

1. Scarlet/Violet sold 22.10 million copies in its launch year, against 107.7–125.6 million Switch consoles sold around then: 0.18–0.21 copies per console.
2. Divided 22.10 million by that rate to get the console base needed, then compared with Switch 2’s 23.68 million.

What we assumed

• Winds/Waves would sell at Scarlet/Violet’s rate per console.A benchmark, not a forecast; the research gives no basis for a different rate.
• The game is Switch 2 only.The official game site says it is Switch 2 software.
• Consoles sold to retailers measure the audience.It is the only base available; active owners may differ.

Sanity check

The Switch 2 base will grow before 2027, so the gap will shrink. The point is that matching Scarlet/Violet needs a much higher rate per console or a much larger base.

Where it comes from

Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:

• FiledThe announcement of the tenth main-series generation, “Pokémon Winds & Waves”