What this is
Three tests of whether two-version Brilliant Diamond/Shining Pearl sold more copies per Switch owner than single-version Legends: Arceus; they suggest about 1.15 times in the launch window.
How it’s built
- Same year, same base: 14.65 million against 12.64 million copies in the year to March 2022, a ratio of 1.16.
- Similar volume: 14.65 million on 107.7 million consoles (0.136 each) against Arceus’s 14.83 million on 125.6 million a year later (0.118): 1.15.
- Same date: Scarlet/Violet against Arceus at March 2023 gives 1.49.
What we assumed
- Consoles sold to retailers measure the audience each game could reach.It is the only base the research has; it counts consoles shipped, not active owners.
- Titles of different ages on sale can be compared.They cannot cleanly: Arceus had two months against about four, then added only 17% the next year. A later equal-age test finds about 1.0.
- Scarlet/Violet’s 1.49 reflects a new region as well as two versions.So that test cannot isolate the two-version effect.
Sanity check
A later equal-age comparison at March 2023 puts the two-version premium at 0.99 to 1.06, so these tests mostly measure launch-window speed, not copies per owner.
The value
- Arceus year to March 2023 increment share: 0.173
Some detail is too fine to show here; it is kept in the trainer’s notes.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes.
Show the working
- 14.65/12.64=1.159
- (12.64/2.04)/(14.65/4.34)=1.836
- 14.65/107.66=0.136
- 14.83/125.63=0.118
- 0.136/0.118=1.153
- 125.63/107.66=1.167
- 22.10/125.63÷0.118=1.490
- 2.19/12.64=0.173
Related figures
Built from this one