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Price moves and implied total value for the 1st Edition Base Set Charizard in PSA’s top grade (10), 2025 to early 2026

2025 – Mar 2026

EstimateArithmetic on reported sales; the total value is a notional mark-to-last-sale, not a market size.

How it’s built

  1. Sale-to-sale steps: $510k to $550k (+7.8%) by December 2025, then $954,800 in February 2026 (+73.6%).
  2. 124 of 4,993 graded copies reached grade 10 (2.5%). 124 × $550k = $68.2m; at $954,800 it is $118.4m.

What we assumed

  • The latest sale price applies to every grade-10 copy.This is Sports Illustrated’s own method; in reality selling many copies would move the price, so it overstates realisable value.
  • Different copies sold at different venues are compared as one price path.No repeat-sales index exists for this card; the steps are indicative, not an index.

Sanity check

The population count comes from Sports Illustrated, not PSA’s report directly. A comparison with a Japanese edition crosses languages, so it is not a like-for-like premium.

Where it comes from

Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:

Show the working
  • Step Dec2025 to Feb2026: 73.6%
  • Step 2025 last to Dec2025: 7.8%
  • PSA10 gem rate: 2.48%
  • PSA10 pop: 124
  • Graded total: 4,993
  • PSA10 pop times Dec2025 price $: 68,200,000
  1. 954,800 / 550,000 − 1 = 73.6%
  2. 550,000 / 510,000 − 1 = 7.8%
  3. 124 / 4,993 = 2.48%
  4. 124 × 550,000 = 68,200,000 (matches SI's $68.2m,)
  5. 124 × 954,800 = 118,395,200
  6. 1,700,000 / 954,800 = 1.78
  7. 1,232,200 / 1,700,000 = 0.72