Whether the prediction that toy master licensees pay only a small share of Western Pokémon licensing income holds

What this is

Whether the prediction that toy master licensees pay only a small share of Western Pokémon licensing income holds: yes, it is consistent with the evidence.

How it’s built

1. Toy royalties are at most ¥4.8–21.5bn, 3.7–21.8% of the ¥98.5–130.6bn industry-rate estimate; 27.6% at a 22% rate.
2. So at least 78% of the estimate is left for non-toy categories.

What we assumed

• The toy royalty ceiling is right.It rests on a Circana-based retail estimate, half-of-retail wholesale and listed toy makers’ rates.

Sanity check

Not falsified, but not confirmed in point terms either, because no toy licensee discloses a Pokémon royalty.

Where it comes from

Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:

• EstimateThe most all Western Pokémon toy licensees together could have paid in royalties in 2025